Sectarianism Update: Al-Qaeda and the Syrian Rebellion

An Al-Qaeda flag in Syria

On Tuesday, the New York Times published an excellent article on Al-Qaeda’s attempts to involve itself in the Syrian civil war. Since the beginning of this year, there is evidence that Al-Qaeda militants and other Sunni jihadists have taken the revolt against the Assad regime as an opportunity to strike against one of the secular Muslim governments they so infamously despise.

Thoughts on Syria, Part Deux

As I described the other day, the Assad government is engaged in a calculated response to the unrest in the country that will allow them to continue using violence against the uprising without alienating too much of the population. The result is essentially a low-intensity civil war, restricted to certain pockets of the country. (A civil war that has, according to the UN, left over 8,000 Syrians dead through the month of February, and the numbers of deceased have grown steadily since the protests began a year ago. Internal and external refugees number nearly a quarter of a million people.)

As I see it, there are two ways for the conflict to reach some conclusion: the regime can successfully crush the opposition militarily, and Assad can be removed from power. The government is banking on being able to accomplish the first, and in this it had a pretty good week. This is evident from the removal of forces from Homs—which it apparently considers sufficiently destroyed—and turning its attention to Daraa, another restive town. Idlib, an additional key opposition city, was also retaken by the government in the last few days. With rebel factions disorganized and disunited, to say nothing of lacking the numbers and materiel to effectively engage government troops, the regime may well win. Indeed, if the political situation in the country remains unchanged over the next year, there’s not really much chance for the opposition to compete militarily.